Question: How big could the individual health insurance market be, say by 2016?
Answer: No one really knows exactly what the size of the California individual market is going to be, but it is certainly going to be much larger than it is today, which is about 1.5 million people. About 500,000 of those currently self-insured in the individual market will qualify for premium subsidies and move to the Exchange. About 3 million currently uninsured are expected to enroll in individual market through the Exchange. Non-Exchange individual business could add another 1 million people. So, the 2014-2015 individual insurance market in California should be about 5 million lives. Also, it remains to be seen how many employers - especially those under 50 (employees) - will decide to drop coverage and point their employees to the Exchange. California could have anywhere between 5 million and 8 million people in individual health plans by 2016.