Question: How many people are expected to obtain coverage in the California Health Benefit Exchange?
Answer: Approximately, 6.5 million Californians will be eligible for coverage in the individual Exchange. It breaks down this way: 2 mil Medi-Cal eligible, 2.4 mil eligible for cost-sharing subsidies, and 2 mil eligible without subsidies. In addition, about 3.8 mil workers will be eligible for coverage in the SHOP Exchange. That rounds out to 8.3 million Californians eligible for coverage in the California Health Benefit Exchange.
The number of eligible who actually enroll will of course be something less than 8.3 mil. How much less remains a guessing game at this point, but 5 million enrolled members by 2016 would not be unreasonable. The Exchange is likely to start with the subsidized population and grow over time depending on their ability to keep administrative costs low and provide a first-class user experience.